Transcription
ITF Transport Outlook 2017
ITF Transport Outlook2017
This work is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. Theopinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the officialviews of the OECD member countries.This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundariesand to the name of any territory, city or area.Please cite this publication as:OECD/ITF (2017), ITF Transport Outlook 2017, OECD Publishing, BN 978-92-82-10799-7 (print)ISBN 978-92-82-10800-0 (PDF)The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The useof such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israelisettlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.Photo credits: iStockphoto.com/visualgo.Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. OECD/ITF 2017You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases andmultimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitableacknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights shouldbe submitted to [email protected] Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall beaddressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC)at [email protected]
EDITORIALEditorialFor the first time, the ITF Transport Outlook assembles scenarios for future transportdemand and related CO2 emissions from all sectors and modes of transport. Starting fromlong-term projections produced by the OECD as well as non-OECD bodies, it analyses howsocio-economic changes will affect the demand for transport under different policyscenarios. Several key trends emerge from these, such as the intensifying shift in transportactivity towards developing economies, with Asian countries representing an everincreasing share of total transport demand for both freight and passengers.The level of uncertainty in all areas of transport is also striking. Uncertainties relatedto the pace of economic and trade development, the price of oil, technology andinnovations all render the future of the transport world difficult to fathom. The differentoutcomes of the scenarios should not be read as forecasts for the coming 35 years. Rather,they describe several possible futures. Whether future reality comes closer to one or theother will depend on the actions policy-makers take. At a time when the internationalcommitments, such as the Paris agreement on climate change, need to be transformed intoactions, the scenarios of the ITF Transport Outlook show that an efficient decarbonisation ofthe transport sector can only occur if a wide range of measures come into force for bothfreight and passengers. All policy levers, Avoid (unnecessary transport demand), Shift (tosustainable transport options) and Improve (efficiency), must be put into action.Building the comprehensive scenarios in this Outlook is only the very first step of alarger enterprise undertaken by the International Transport Forum to understand how thetransport sector can play its part in decarbonising the economy. ITF’s DecarbonisingTransport project aims to build a catalogue of efficient mitigation measures and assessthem under a coherent framework, in order to help countries transform their ambitionsinto actions, by building a commonly accepted framework for climate policy assessment,and by helping countries to develop sustainable transport solutions.At the same time, the efforts towards greener transport need to be balanced with therole transport plays as an enabler of sustainable development. There is a growingrecognition that better transport is not about increased mobility and tonne-kilometres butabout providing equitable access to jobs, opportunities, social interactions and markets,contributing to healthy and fulfilled lives. Transport policies should focus on accessibility,not only time savings. This Outlook showcases how to analyse policies in terms of access intwo areas, urban and international air travel.Providing efficient, equitable access while respecting the pledge to decarbonisetransport will prove challenging. Policy-makers need to act now to ensure a sustainablefuture for transport, but with a strategic long-term vision. They must avoid the trap ofshort-term energy savings which will prove inefficient in the long-term, especially thoseinvolving large investment, for instance in infrastructure.ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 20173
EDITORIALPolicy makers should also be ready to tap into the potential of innovative technologiesin terms of access and green transport. The impact of digitalisation is already felt stronglyacross much of transport. The next transport revolution is underway, based on real-time datathat make it easier and more efficient to match supply and demand. The coming decadeswill witness the arrival of more disruptive technologies, vehicle automation and on-demandtransport first and foremost. Car-sharing has the potential to increase accessibility in asustainable way. Such solutions need to be promoted and accompanied by sound policies.Without these, vehicle automation could lead to more cars onto the roads, with all theassociated problems of air pollution, CO2 emissions, congestion, inequitable transport Sustainable transport enables sustainable development. It is fundamental for meetingthe needs of people in their personal lives and economic activities while safeguarding theability of future generations to meet their own needs. Providing sustainable transport willbe a challenge and will require sound governance from all stakeholders. In this respect, Ihope that this Outlook can enhance the knowledge about the issues at stake and becomethe basis for enlightened discussions about solutions.José ViegasSecretary-GeneralInternational Transport Forum4ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 2017
FOREWORDForewordThe 2017 Edition of the ITF Transport Outlook builds and expands on the previous editions togive a comprehensive overview of the future transport demand and related carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions up to 2050. The scenarios in this Outlook are built with the International TransportForum’s (ITF) in-house modelling tools, developed over the course of several years. Contrary to mosttransport-energy modelling framework, the ITF models start by analysing transport demand,estimating what are the mobility needs and the freight demand coming from the future population,economic and trade projections (Annex 2.A). Mode choice, energy use and CO2 emissions only comeat a later stage.Rather than attempting to establish a likely central forecast for the evolution of transportvolumes, the ITF Transport Outlook focuses on scenarios to illustrate the potential impact ofpolicies on transport demand and related CO2 emissions. This edition covers all modes and combinesthem into coherent scenarios. In particular, it gives a low-carbon scenario, which results from thecombination of the most optimistic scenario from all modes and points to a lower bound for CO2emissions for 2050 with currently foreseen technology and mode choice trajectories.Compared to the 2015 edition, this publication adds several new elements. Most noteworthy arethe chapter dedicated to international aviation (Chapter 4), as well as the expansion of our analysisof urban mobility to all the cities of the world (Chapter 5). This Outlook also brings into focus theissue of accessibility, both for air transport and in cities. Accessibility has become a key angle fromwhich to analyse transport policies and the Outlook gives some insights into the long-term trendsfor accessibility, and how they relate to policy packages.ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 20175
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSAcknowledgementsThe ITF Transport Outlook was prepared by the ITF Statistics and Modelling Unit, with thesupport from numerous persons and partner organisations. The publication was coordinatedby Vincent Benezech, under the supervision of Jari Kauppila (Head of Statistics andModelling). The main authors for each chapter are the following:Chapter 1. The transport sector todayVincent Benezech, Christian Pollok, Jari KauppilaChapter 2. Overview of long-term OutlookVincent Benezech, Guineng Chen, Jari KauppilaChapter 3. International freightRonald Halim, Jari Kauppila, Luis Martinez, Olaf MerkChapter 4. International aviationVincent BenezechChapter 5. Mobility in citiesGuineng Chen (global mobility model), Nicolas Wagner, Olga Petrik and Christian Pollok(accessibility), Wei-Shiuen Ng (Asian cities)Statistical and research assistance was provided by Claire Alanoix, Mario Barreto, RyanHunter and Rachele Poggi. Cecilia Paymon, Janine Treves and Margaret Simmons supportedthe publication process. Suzanne Parandian copy-edited the manuscript.The Outlook was reviewed by the Joint Transport Research Centre Committee and theOutlook team is very grateful for their commnents and contribution. The authors are alsograteful for the help of other ITF staff, in particular, Jagoda Egeland, Seiya Ishikawa, AlainLumbroso, Olaf Merk, Stephen Perkins and Daniel Veyrard. The ITF also benefited from thehelp provided by the following bodies of the OECD: the Ship Building Unit, the EnvironmentDirectorate and the International Energy Agency.Several partners have been valuable in developing the methodologies and providingdata: The International Council for Clean Transportation (ICCT) for the work on localpollutant emissions; The Energy and Resources Institute India, (TERI), China Academy ofTransportation Sciences (CATS), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA),Transportation Planning Research Institute China and the Asian Development Bank (ADB)for their help with data in Asian cities; Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC) andDevelopment Bank of Latin America (CAF) for data on Latin American cities and trade; theRoad Freight Lab of World Business Council on Sustainable Development (WBCSD) withwhom we worked on the freight optimisation; the International Civil Aviation Organisation(ICAO) and the Airport Council International Europe (ACI Europe) for their help with aviationforecasts and emissions; SkyScanner for generously providing a database on fares from theaviation sector.Finally, the ITF Secretariat is grateful for contributions provided by several individuals,including Dr Tristan Smith (University College London), Sainarayan Ananthanarayan andAntonin Combes (ICAO), Lloyd Wright, Melissa Cardenas and Alvin Mejia (ADB), Dr CristianoFaçanha (ICCT), Pierpaolo Cazzola (IEA), Jean Chateau and Karin Strodel (OECD) and SudhirGota (Clean Air Asia).6ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTSTable of contentsExecutive summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13Part IGlobal outlook for transportChapter 1. The transport sector today . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19Transport and the economic environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Freight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Passenger transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions from transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .222733Spending on inland transport infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3840References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .44Chapter 2. Transport demand and CO2 emissions to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Passenger transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Freight transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47485660References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63Annex 2.A. The ITF modelling framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .64Part IISectoral outlookChapter 3. International freight . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Underlying trade projections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .International freight transport to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions from international freight. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .697073Challenges in container shipping. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Challenges of hinterland transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Decision making under uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75828690References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .92Annex 3.A. ITF International Freight Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .94Chapter 4. International passenger aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Modelling global passenger demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Passenger demand for air transport until 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Impact of entry restrictions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .101102107110ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 20177
TABLE OF CONTENTSCO2 emissions from international aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112Accessibility by air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121Annex 4.A. Modelling framework for international aviation (passenger) . . . . . . . . . 123Chapter 5. Mobility in cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Modelling passenger transport demand in cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Transport policy scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Passenger mobility in cities up to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Emissions from mobility in cities up to 2050 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accessibility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Passenger transport in Asian cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .127128131134136143157References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164Annex 5.A1. Data sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Annex 5.A2. Methodology for the global urban passenger model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171Annex 5.A3. Detailed results for transport speed and densities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176Annex 5.A4. Scenario assumptions for Asian cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178Statistical annex. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2.Transport related targets in the UN Sustainable Development Goals . . . . . . . .GDP growth, percentage change over previous year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annual GDP growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World merchandise trade, 2012-17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Growth in GDP and domestic transport demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Urban transport by mode compared to economic growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annual growth rate for freight transport demand, compared to GDP . . . . . . . .Freight intensity as a function of GDP per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Per capita emissions from transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Comparison of the alternative trade scenarios for the 2015-50 period . . . . . . .Alternative scenarios for CO2 emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.3. Container traffic by sea area in 2030 and 2050 and planned capacity 2030 . . .3.4. Capacity needs for surface freight by continent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.5. Capacity needs for surface freight by continent within 50 km of centroidsand ports . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A1. Statistical and capacity characterisation of road network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A2. Rail line engineering capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3.A3. Rail infrastructure classification and freight capacity estimation . . . . . . . . . . .4.1. International connectivity for selected countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.2. Breakdown of CO2 emissions from aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4.A1.5.1.5.2.5.3.8Data sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Specification of the three policy scenarios for city passenger transport. . . . . .Share of car and public transport by region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Total mobility by world region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36138ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS5.4. Total CO2 emissions in cities by region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1425.5. Results of the estimation of the congestion model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1495.6. Changes in some city characteristics between 2015 and 2050in the baseline scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1575.7. Changes in some city characteristics between 2015 and 2050 in the cenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Transport characteristics of selected Asian cities in 2010 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Data Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Road speeds and density in cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Public transport speeds and provision in cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Chinese cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Indian Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Southeast Asian Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .157159169176177178179179Monthly index of world trade, advanced and emerging economies . . . . . . . . .Elasticity of global trade to GDP. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Primary commodity price indices, 2011-17 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World seaborne trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World seaborne trade by type of cargo and country group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World container throughput . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World air freight traffic 2008-15. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Surface freight volumes by mode of transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Passenger-kilometres by private car . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Motorisation rates in selected developing countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Road fatalities per 1 000 inhabitants. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Rail passenger traffic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .World air passenger traffic, international and domestic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Top 10 busiest airports in 2015 and evolution from 2000. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Investment in inland transport infrastructure by region 1998-2014 . . . . . . . . .Volume of investment in inland transport infrastructure by region1995-2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Distribution of infrastructure investment across rail, road and inlandwaterways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Share of public road maintenance in total road expenditure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Demand for passenger transport by mode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Domestic aviation by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Passenger car ownership by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Length of high-speed rail network in selected countries or regions . . . . . . . . .Urban transport demand by mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .International air transport demand by region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Freight transport demand by mode. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Surface freight tonne-kilometres by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Road freight activity by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions by sector and scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7.2.8.2.9.2.10.2.11.ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 201742434349505152535556586061629
TABLE OF CONTENTS2.A1.3.1.3.2.3.3.3.4.The ITF modelling framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Value of trade by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Value of trade by commodity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Freight transport demand in alternative trade elasticity scenarios . . . . . . . . . .International freight volume by mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .65727374753.5.3.6.3.7.3.8.International freight and related CO2 emissions by corridor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions from international freight by mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions from maritime transport by commodity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Road freight CO2 intensity by region in the 4 degree scenario of the IEAMobility Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .The impact of policy measures on emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Impact of trade liberalisation on tonne-kilometres and CO2 emissions . . . . . .Expansion plans compared with traffic projections by sea area . . . . . . . . . . . .Ship size development of various ship types 1996-2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Market concentration of container shipping lines 2000-16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Container ship capacity on Far East-Mediterranean route by allianceand by port (2015). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Global merchant fleet and seaborne trade, 1995-2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Schematic description of the ITF international freight model . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Freight transport networks. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Competition in international aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Relationship between distance, GDP and air connections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Share of low-cost carriers in regional, international flights . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Demand for passenger aviation by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Regional breakdown of passenger-kilometres. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Annual growth of the size of the air network, by origin region . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions from airports participating in the Airport CarbonAccreditation program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions from international aviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Average travel time to the alpha-cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Average travel time to the alpha-cities by region, 2004-15 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Average number of alpha-cities reachable in less than 24 hours . . . . . . . . . . . .Schematic description of the ITF international aviation model . . . . . . . . . . . . .Geographical distribution of cities and alpha-cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Total population of cities over 300 000 inhabitants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .GDP per capita in cities and countries by region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Car share in cities by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mobility by mode of transport, Asia and North America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .CO2 emissions in cities by mode of transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Mitigation potential by type of measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Stock of electric cars by region, 2015 to 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .NOx, SO4 and PM2.5 emissions by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Vehicle activity by mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Coverage of cities by OpenStreetMap (OSM) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Road accessibility in cities by region and city size . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Congestion in cities as a function of GDP per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Public transport coverage in selected cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4147148149150ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2017 OECD/ITF 2017
TABLE OF CONTENTS5.14.5.15.5.16.5.17.Public transport coverage in cities by region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accessibility by public transport in 23 cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Public transport accessibility in cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Accessibility to jobs in Lisbon before (left) and after (right) the introductionof shared mobility solutions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1511521531555.18. Total CO2 emissions in the selected Asian cities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1625.A2.1. Modelling framework for the ITF global model for mobility in cities. . . . . . . . .
transport-energy modelling framework, the ITF models start by analysing transport demand, estimating what are the mobility needs and the freight demand coming from the future population, economic and trade projections (Annex 2.A). Mode choice, energy use and CO2 emissions only come at a later stage.
